Think Probabilistically
18 lessons
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What you'll learn
Unit 1
Numbers, Not Verdicts
6 lessons
- The yes no reflex
- Put a number on it
- How often does this happen
- Is that fifty or a shrugChallenge
- The learner acts by diagnosing and repairing six draft predictions in a fortnight ledger — finding the verdict, the missing deadline and the uncheckable claim, then supplying the line, the date and their own number — and the ledger responds by striking each defect, marking each repaired row sealed, and holding its result column open for the days ahead.Exercise
- Confidence vs accuracyUnit review
Unit 2
Weighing the Evidence
6 lessons
- Move the number
- How far does this move youChallenge
- Probability times stakes
- The cost of being wrong
- Capped downside
- Probability times payoffUnit review
Unit 3
The Traps and the Readback
6 lessons
- Two sources or one
- The echo
- Who never made it in
- The pull back to average
- Calibration checkChallenge
- Your probabilistic operating systemUnit review
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Frequently asked questions
What does the Think Probabilistically roadmap cover?
3 units: Numbers, Not Verdicts, Weighing the Evidence and The Traps and the Readback.
How do I start the Think Probabilistically roadmap?
Get the Mochivia app on the App Store and open this roadmap there.
Start Think Probabilistically
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